1) Do not buy funds that have a negative Momentum.
2) Do not buy (or hold) funds with a RSI/Stochastic below 50.
3) Choose from funds with highest SmallCap correlation (preferably 90 to 100%).
1) Do not buy funds that have negative Momentum.
2) Do not buy (or hold) funds with RSI/Stochastic under 50.
3) Prefer (inverse) funds with NEGATIVE SmallCap Correlation (-90 to -100%).
Momentum RSI/Stoc SC Corr
-------- -------- --------
SHPIX ProFunds INV:Short SmallCap/06 4.78 51.33 -99.67
SHPSX ProFunds Short SmallCap Servic 4.76 50.84 -99.32
CPCRX Comstock Capital Value-R 4.61 49.37 -81.10
UCPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Short Small 4.60 50.33 -98.51
POSSX Potomac SmallCap Short 3.95 50.61 -97.16
CPCCX Gabelli Comstock Capital Value 3.49 47.37 -81.12
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URSA/317 2.33 46.00 -78.05
UIPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Short MidCa 2.00 46.48 -96.84
PDOSX Potomac INV:Dow 30 Short 1.80 43.84 -76.83
BRPIX ProFunds INV:Bear 1.78 45.96 -80.73
URPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Bear 1.69 45.41 -80.74
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 500-H 1.61 45.19 -87.20
RYURX Rydex INV:Ursa/217 1.55 45.50 -79.53
RYCBX Rydex Tempest-C 1.54 44.91 -88.44
URPSX ProFunds Ultra Bear Service 1.49 44.85 -80.61
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/817 1.33 44.98 -88.03
POTSX Potomac OTC Short 0.67 42.87 -78.62
PSPSX Potomac US Short (Short Sells 0.62 44.69 -79.51
SOPIX ProFunds INV:Short OTC/063 0.59 42.84 -82.34
SOPSX ProFunds Short OTC Service/093 0.38 42.44 -82.39
RYAIX Rydex INV:Arktos/220 0.14 42.32 -79.07
USPSX ProFunds Ultra Short OTC Servi 0.01 40.94 -78.21
USPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Short OTC -0.00 41.16 -78.39
RYACX Rydex Arktos-C/820 -0.11 41.78 -79.52
RYVNX Rydex Venture 100-H -0.16 41.04 -78.61
RYCDX Rydex Venture-C -0.19 40.88 -79.63
We also use the below 'Scoreboard', combining the various indicators to rank funds:
--
Points are given for:
1) Positive Momentum
2) RSI/Stochastic Over 50
3) Positive Price Oscillator (19-day performance vs. 39-day performance)
4) Positive Price Oscillator Trend (current change in the price oscillator)
5) Outperforming 50-day Moving Average
6) Funds making new one-month high
--
The 'Score' shows the relative performance of the funds to each other. Initially, on the day of the signal
change, the
scores can be low and it will be all right to choose those funds as long as they have a positive
momentum. However,
when the score increases during the Signal Period, the best funds to select would
be those with scores of '6' or '5',
as long as the RSI/Stoc is above 50 and the Momentum is positive.
Funds with scores below '5' should then in general be ignored.
Score Momentum RSI/Stoc PriceOsc PrOscTnd %> 50dMA
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
SHPIX ProFunds INV: 4.00 4.78 51.33 -45.99 11.20 0.66
SHPSX ProFunds Shor 4.00 4.76 50.84 -50.09 11.14 0.55
UCPIX ProFunds INV: 4.00 4.60 50.33 -73.49 20.44 1.79
POSSX Potomac Small 4.00 3.95 50.61 -56.99 10.97 0.32
CPCRX Comstock Capi 3.00 4.61 49.37 -25.91 6.58 0.43
CPCCX Gabelli Comst 3.00 3.49 47.37 -29.96 7.58 0.51
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URS 3.00 2.33 46.00 -24.17 6.12 0.38
UIPIX ProFunds INV: 3.00 2.00 46.48 -90.13 13.84 0.24
PDOSX Potomac INV:D 3.00 1.80 43.84 -24.89 3.86 0.01
BRPIX ProFunds INV: 3.00 1.78 45.96 -23.21 5.76 0.34
URPIX ProFunds INV: 3.00 1.69 45.41 -51.02 11.37 0.53
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 3.00 1.61 45.19 -52.70 11.71 0.55
RYURX Rydex INV:Urs 3.00 1.55 45.50 -22.97 5.81 0.36
RYCBX Rydex Tempest 3.00 1.54 44.91 -56.26 11.65 0.45
URPSX ProFunds Ultr 3.00 1.49 44.85 -56.06 11.37 0.41
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/ 3.00 1.33 44.98 -26.80 5.81 0.26
POTSX Potomac OTC S 3.00 0.67 42.87 -51.28 7.01 0.04
PSPSX Potomac US Sh 3.00 0.62 44.69 -28.26 5.33 0.14
SOPIX ProFunds INV: 3.00 0.59 42.84 -48.80 6.80 0.07
RYAIX Rydex INV:Ark 3.00 0.14 42.32 -48.63 6.69 0.07
SOPSX ProFunds Shor 2.00 0.38 42.44 -52.40 6.75 -0.02
USPSX ProFunds Ultr 2.00 0.01 40.94 -119.06 13.25 -0.42
USPIX ProFunds INV: 1.00 -0.00 41.16 -114.43 13.18 -0.32
RYACX Rydex Arktos- 1.00 -0.11 41.78 -52.64 6.61 -0.04
RYVNX Rydex Venture 1.00 -0.16 41.04 -113.18 12.96 -0.32
RYCDX Rydex Venture 1.00 -0.19 40.88 -116.13 13.10 -0.37
FundSectrum Signal: (Sell, 04/21/04)
SinceSig 1dayGain 1wk Gain 2wk Gain 1mo Gain
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
UCPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor 5.54 4.64 2.00 1.27 1.51
USPSX ProFunds Ultra Short OT 4.41 3.60 -0.55 2.47 -2.49
USPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor 4.40 3.61 -0.53 2.48 -2.41
RYCDX Rydex Venture-C 4.38 3.63 -0.58 2.47 -2.50
RYVNX Rydex Venture 100-H 4.38 3.60 -0.57 2.50 -2.49
UIPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor 4.36 3.18 0.78 0.07 -0.53
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 500-H 3.32 2.98 0.38 1.00 -0.36
URPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Bear 3.30 2.88 0.31 0.90 -0.35
URPSX ProFunds Ultra Bear Ser 3.30 2.87 0.31 0.85 -0.49
RYCBX Rydex Tempest-C 3.29 2.97 0.35 0.96 -0.44
SHPSX ProFunds Short SmallCap 2.79 2.28 1.06 0.71 0.79
SHPIX ProFunds INV:Short Smal 2.79 2.34 1.05 0.78 0.87
POSSX Potomac SmallCap Short 2.70 2.21 0.99 0.63 0.71
RYAIX Rydex INV:Arktos/220 2.22 1.81 -0.20 1.32 -1.09
POTSX Potomac OTC Short 2.19 1.80 -0.28 1.42 -1.01
SOPIX ProFunds INV:Short OTC/ 2.18 1.84 -0.24 1.40 -1.03
SOPSX ProFunds Short OTC Serv 2.17 1.82 -0.24 1.32 -1.15
RYACX Rydex Arktos-C/820 2.17 1.79 -0.24 1.28 -1.21
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URSA/317 1.72 1.48 0.23 0.57 -0.11
CPCCX Gabelli Comstock Capita 1.67 1.67 0.33 1.33 0.00
BRPIX ProFunds INV:Bear 1.66 1.45 0.18 0.48 -0.12
RYURX Rydex INV:Ursa/217 1.66 1.43 0.22 0.55 -0.11
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/817 1.60 1.48 0.23 0.45 -0.22
PSPSX Potomac US Short (Short 1.37 1.33 0.00 0.45 -0.22
CPCRX Comstock Capital Value- 1.26 1.26 0.00 1.26 0.00
PDOSX Potomac INV:Dow 30 Shor 0.97 1.20 -0.33 0.28 -0.45
04/28/04 04/27/04 04/26/04 04/23/04 04/22/04
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
funds with score of 6.0: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
funds with score of 5.0: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
funds with score of 4.0: 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
funds with score of 3.0: 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
funds with score of 2.0: 2.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00
funds with score of 1.0: 4.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 11.00
funds with score of 0.0: 0.00 19.00 25.00 26.00 15.00
04/28/04 04/27/04 04/26/04 04/23/04 04/22/04
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Percent at 6: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Percent at 5 or 6: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Percent at 4, 5 or 6: 15.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Percent at 0, 1, 2 or 3: 84.62 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
%> 20dMA %> 40dMA %> 50dMA %>100dMA %>200dMA
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
UCPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor 2.80 2.05 1.79 1.10 0.63
UIPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor 1.52 0.61 0.24 -0.96 -1.97
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 500-H 1.50 0.96 0.55 -3.21 -12.65
SHPIX ProFunds INV:Short Smal 1.49 1.01 0.66 -2.18 -9.59
URPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Bear 1.46 0.94 0.53 -3.20 -12.64
RYCBX Rydex Tempest-C 1.46 0.88 0.45 -3.40 -13.01
SHPSX ProFunds Short SmallCap 1.44 0.92 0.55 -2.37 -9.91
URPSX ProFunds Ultra Bear Ser 1.41 0.84 0.41 -3.44 -13.08
POSSX Potomac SmallCap Short 1.35 0.75 0.32 -3.10 -11.56
USPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor 1.15 0.04 -0.32 -3.94 -17.80
RYVNX Rydex Venture 100-H 1.12 0.03 -0.32 -3.91 -17.74
RYCDX Rydex Venture-C 1.12 -0.00 -0.37 -4.05 -18.08
USPSX ProFunds Ultra Short OT 1.12 -0.03 -0.42 -4.16 -18.24
CPCCX Gabelli Comstock Capita 1.01 0.71 0.51 -1.36 -6.56
CPCRX Comstock Capital Value- 0.88 0.62 0.43 -1.34 -6.34
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URSA/317 0.82 0.57 0.38 -1.39 -5.84
RYURX Rydex INV:Ursa/217 0.78 0.54 0.36 -1.36 -5.71
BRPIX ProFunds INV:Bear 0.76 0.53 0.34 -1.40 -5.85
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/817 0.74 0.47 0.26 -1.58 -6.14
POTSX Potomac OTC Short 0.70 0.21 0.04 -1.61 -7.87
SOPIX ProFunds INV:Short OTC/ 0.69 0.22 0.07 -1.43 -7.43
RYAIX Rydex INV:Arktos/220 0.67 0.21 0.07 -1.36 -7.02
SOPSX ProFunds Short OTC Serv 0.64 0.14 -0.02 -1.63 -7.83
PSPSX Potomac US Short (Short 0.64 0.35 0.14 -1.76 -6.46
RYACX Rydex Arktos-C/820 0.62 0.11 -0.04 -1.58 -7.47
PDOSX Potomac INV:Dow 30 Shor 0.42 0.17 0.01 -1.59 -5.84
Price 20dayMA 40dayMA 50dayMA 100dayMA 200dayMA
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 50.47 49.72 49.99 50.19 52.15 57.78
RYCBX Rydex Tempest 49.29 48.58 48.86 49.07 51.03 56.66
PDOSX Potomac INV:D 39.65 39.48 39.58 39.65 40.29 42.11
BRPIX ProFunds INV: 33.60 33.35 33.42 33.49 34.08 35.69
PSPSX Potomac US Sh 31.18 30.98 31.07 31.14 31.74 33.33
UCPIX ProFunds INV: 29.52 28.72 28.93 29.00 29.20 29.33
UIPIX ProFunds INV: 28.25 27.83 28.08 28.18 28.52 28.82
RYVNX Rydex Venture 26.22 25.93 26.21 26.31 27.29 31.87
RYCDX Rydex Venture 25.72 25.44 25.72 25.82 26.81 31.40
POSSX Potomac Small 25.49 25.15 25.30 25.41 26.31 28.82
RYAIX Rydex INV:Ark 25.33 25.16 25.28 25.31 25.68 27.24
RYACX Rydex Arktos- 24.46 24.31 24.43 24.47 24.85 26.43
SHPIX ProFunds INV: 23.20 22.86 22.97 23.05 23.72 25.66
SHPSX ProFunds Shor 22.83 22.51 22.62 22.70 23.38 25.34
URPSX ProFunds Ultr 22.55 22.24 22.36 22.46 23.35 25.94
URPIX ProFunds INV: 22.53 22.21 22.32 22.41 23.28 25.79
USPSX ProFunds Ultr 21.56 21.32 21.57 21.65 22.50 26.37
SOPIX ProFunds INV: 21.07 20.93 21.02 21.05 21.38 22.76
SOPSX ProFunds Shor 20.69 20.56 20.66 20.69 21.03 22.45
USPIX ProFunds INV: 20.65 20.42 20.64 20.72 21.50 25.12
POTSX Potomac OTC S 10.73 10.66 10.71 10.73 10.91 11.65
RYURX Rydex INV:Urs 9.19 9.12 9.14 9.16 9.32 9.75
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/ 8.90 8.83 8.86 8.88 9.04 9.48
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URS 8.89 8.82 8.84 8.86 9.02 9.44
CPCRX Comstock Capi 3.21 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.25 3.43
CPCCX Gabelli Comst 3.04 3.01 3.02 3.02 3.08 3.25
UPI UlcerIdx Std Dev Curr DD Max DD
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
RYURX Rydex INV:Ursa/217 -0.34 43.03 11.61 0.43 65.79
CPCRX Comstock Capital Value- -0.45 45.74 15.98 0.31 67.83
CPCCX Gabelli Comstock Capita -0.45 46.71 15.98 0.33 68.91
POTSX Potomac OTC Short -0.47 71.00 25.13 1.20 88.77
RYAIX Rydex INV:Arktos/220 -0.47 69.37 26.22 1.21 84.45
URPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Bear -0.50 52.02 26.57 0.88 77.05
URPSX ProFunds Ultra Bear Ser -0.50 52.37 26.57 0.92 77.60
PSPSX Potomac US Short (Short -0.51 32.42 13.32 0.61 53.32
BRPIX ProFunds INV:Bear -0.53 28.64 13.36 0.41 48.44
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URSA/317 -0.62 23.69 13.46 0.34 43.14
USPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor -0.63 87.01 53.02 2.50 98.36
USPSX ProFunds Ultra Short OT -0.64 87.16 52.88 2.49 98.44
RYVNX Rydex Venture 100-H -0.73 48.87 53.47 2.53 78.57
POSSX Potomac SmallCap Short -0.74 37.07 15.58 0.43 65.44
RYCDX Rydex Venture-C -0.81 47.89 49.05 2.50 75.61
RYACX Rydex Arktos-C/820 -0.83 26.03 24.62 1.25 46.82
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 500-H -0.90 25.19 26.60 0.84 55.46
RYCBX Rydex Tempest-C -1.00 27.13 27.50 0.86 54.94
SOPIX ProFunds INV:Short OTC/ -1.02 23.72 19.97 1.22 41.17
SOPSX ProFunds Short OTC Serv -1.02 24.23 19.97 1.24 41.88
SHPIX ProFunds INV:Short Smal -1.13 27.15 14.85 0.26 46.70
SHPSX ProFunds Short SmallCap -1.13 27.41 15.03 0.26 47.13
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/817 -1.14 14.36 13.56 0.45 31.42
PDOSX Potomac INV:Dow 30 Shor -1.14 17.23 10.25 0.48 28.34
UCPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor -1.24 4.96 24.78 0.67 9.69
UIPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor -5.19 4.49 19.89 1.05 8.81
Interpretation of Output Fields:
1. UPI = How well the fund outperformed a money market over the past
12 months compared with the amount of ulcers it produced.
.
2. Ulcer Idx = The lower the Ulcer Index, the easier an investment will
be to live with and the less troubling will be the down days.
.
3. StDev = The smaller the standard deviation, the tighter the probability
distribution and the lower the risk associated with the security.
.
4. Curr DD = The percentage loss the fund currently is experiencing
from its highest Net Asset Value of the past two weeks.
.
5. Max DD = The worst possible percentage loss an investor could have
experienced over the past 12 months, assuming the fund
was bought on the day the fund experienced its highest Net
Asset Value and was still being held on the day of the fund's
lowest Net Asset Value.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FUND RANKING
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This table shows the Rydex Funds, now sorted by Sharpe Ratio:
and referenced to the Russell 2000 Index.
(explanation of indicators is shown below the table)
Sharpe RSI/Stoc Momentum Relstdev AvgStoc
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
URPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Bear -5.27 45.41 1.69 1.38 40.83
RYTPX Rydex Tempest 500-H -5.39 45.19 1.61 1.37 40.50
URPSX ProFunds Ultra Bear Ser -5.61 44.85 1.49 1.38 39.64
RYCBX Rydex Tempest-C -5.65 44.91 1.54 1.37 39.77
RYURX Rydex INV:Ursa/217 -5.95 45.50 1.55 0.69 41.76
RYUAX Rydex ADV:URSA/317 -5.96 46.00 2.33 0.69 43.10
UCPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor -6.00 50.33 4.60 2.08 49.94
BRPIX ProFunds INV:Bear -6.13 45.96 1.78 0.69 42.07
RYUCX Rydex Ursa-C/817 -6.45 44.98 1.33 0.69 40.27
SHPIX ProFunds INV:Short Smal -6.45 51.33 4.78 1.00 52.16
PSPSX Potomac US Short (Short -6.69 44.69 0.62 0.68 38.01
UIPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor -6.88 46.48 2.00 1.50 43.00
SHPSX ProFunds Short SmallCap -6.92 50.84 4.76 1.00 51.51
CPCCX Gabelli Comstock Capita -7.10 47.37 3.49 0.69 43.77
POSSX Potomac SmallCap Short -7.20 50.61 3.95 1.00 49.88
CPCRX Comstock Capital Value- -8.33 49.37 4.61 0.69 47.33
USPIX ProFunds INV:Ultra Shor -8.72 41.16 -0.00 2.28 34.44
RYVNX Rydex Venture 100-H -8.72 41.04 -0.16 2.27 34.31
RYCDX Rydex Venture-C -8.75 40.88 -0.19 2.27 34.21
USPSX ProFunds Ultra Short OT -8.82 40.94 0.01 2.28 34.25
POTSX Potomac OTC Short -9.06 42.87 0.67 1.14 37.17
SOPIX ProFunds INV:Short OTC/ -9.17 42.84 0.59 1.14 36.56
RYAIX Rydex INV:Arktos/220 -9.27 42.32 0.14 1.14 36.32
SOPSX ProFunds Short OTC Serv -9.46 42.44 0.38 1.14 36.00
RYACX Rydex Arktos-C/820 -9.53 41.78 -0.11 1.14 35.54
PDOSX Potomac INV:Dow 30 Shor -9.90 43.84 1.80 0.64 37.09
Interpretation of Output Fields:BackFundSpectrum Group - www.FundSpectrum.com